After a summer hiatus, the Clean Energy Review is back. To kick things off, here is a special election edition exploring what the four major parties are offering on climate.
With the election only weeks away, the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and most recently the Greens have all released climate plans with varying approaches and levels of detail. So we put together an overview of the key policies being offered, including emissions targets and the effectiveness of each plan to reach them.
The Liberal Party: reduce emissions by 40% to 45% from 2005 levels.
The Conservative Party: reduce emissions by 30% from 2005 levels (backtracking on our current Paris target).
The New Democratic Party: reduce emissions by 50% from 2005 levels.
The Green Party: reduce emissions by 60% from 2005 levels
Does the plan reach the target?
The Conservative Party’s climate plan, Securing the Environment, has been independently modelled to reach a weakened 30% target. However, the modelling indicates that it is dependent on raising the industrial carbon price to $170 a tonne by 2030, something the party has said it will only do if Canada’s trading partners (notably the U.S. and EU) do the same.
The Liberal Party’s December 2020 climate update, A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy, in combination with measures announced in Budget 2021 are projected to achieve emission reductions of 36% by 2030, an assertion verified by the Parliamentary Budget Officer. When the additional measures announced in the new climate platform are included, a “triangulation” of existing modelling done by economist Mark Jaccard suggests they could achieve the 40% target.
The New Democratic Party’s plan is not accompanied by modelling or enough detail to determine whether the proposed measures would lead to reductions in line with the party’s 50% target.
The Green Party’s plan is also not accompanied by modelling, and we do not know whether the proposed measures would lead to reductions in line with the party’s 60% target.
How much would the plans cost?
Simon Fraser University economist Mark Jaccard modelled the proposed climate plans to determine the impact each would have on Canada’s GDP compared to a scenario where no climate plans were implemented. He determined the following:
The Conservative Party’s plan would result in 23% GDP growth by 2030 (2 percentage points below a 25% baseline growth rate).
The Liberal Party’s plan would result in 22.5% GDP growth by 2030 (2.5 percentage points below the 25% baseline).
The New Democratic Party’s plan would result in 18.5% GDP growth by 2030 (6.5 percentage points below the 25% baseline). However, because there was insufficient information in the party’s climate plan to determine how it would meet its target, a number of assumptions were made in order to reach 50% that may not accurately reflect the NDP’s position.
The Green Party’s plan would result in 17.5% GDP growth by 2030 (7.5% below the 25% baseline), although this is based on a previous version of the climate plan and does not include all the policies presented in the party’s recently released election platform.
What carbon prices are proposed?
The Conservative Party: beginning at $20 per tonne and increasing to a maximum of $50 per tonne by 2030.
The Liberal Party: increasing from $40 per tonne (current level) to $170 per tonne by 2030.
The New Democratic Party: increasing from $40 per tonne (current level) to $170 per tonne by 2030.
The Green Party: increasing by $25 per tonne each year from 2022 to 2030, reaching $250 per tonne by 2030.
What about key regulations and investment?
For more information on regulations, investment, and incentives proposed by each of the parties, head over to our most recent media brief.
Source: Clean Energy Review